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Deliberate and Crisis Planning Scenario

Scenario

Recently,the Central Intelligence Agency concluded that Iran had advanced its working on creating nuclear weapon despite some technical problems and international resistance. Currently, the CIA reports that Tehran has decided to conduct a physical test of a nuclear bomb within nearest three months.

Earlier, the intelligence reported that Iran finished the three years series of computer simulations that was the part of the program concerning building their own nuclear weapon (Jahn, 2012). Moreover,Iran has successfully developed and launched new centrifuges to produce highly enriched uranium required for the construction of nuclear warheads (Kahlili, 2012).These facilities enable Iran to enrich uranium to weapon grade on a large scale that allows arranging full-scale production of nuclear weapon.

These nuclear weapon capabilities reinforced by implications of physical tests create a real threat of proliferating weapons of mass destruction (WMD) that unacceptable for the United States and their allies in the region. This situation necessitates an adequate and feasible response of the United Sates that should endeavor to deter Iranfrom coercing its neighbors and reduce the threat of proliferating WMD.

Such a response is likely to contain the military component. Therefore, the current situation requires to initiate Crisis Action Planning procedures “used by the JPEC to plan and execute the deployment and employment of U.S. military forces in crisis situations” (JSOG, 2000, p.5-3).Crisis Action Planning procedures will allow the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS) and the CINCs to get critical decision-making information up the chain of command to the National Command Authority (NCA) and conduct parallel planning at different organization levels.

Crisis Action Planning

Phase1. The Situation Development

The Central Intelligence Agency reports the situation concerning Iranian nuclear weapon capabilities to the NCA. Defining the national implications of the event is urgently required, and the NCA starts assessing diplomatic, informational, and economic consequences and directs organizations that include Government Agencies, State Department, Joint Reconnaissance Center, Intelligence Agencies, Defense Agencies, Military services to monitor the crisis (JSOG, 2000, p. 5-10). They recognize and analyze the situation concerning Iran; their analyses conclude that U.S. interests are at stake that is reported to the National Military Command Center (NMCC).

Reports to the NMCC concerning the growing threat to U.S. interests trigger Crisis Action Planning (CAP) procedure. The NMCC disseminates report to the military chain of command to initiate their recognizing and analyzing the situation. The combatant commands start observing the situation “with potential national security implications” (JSOG, 2000, p.5-10). A CINC’s situation assessment results inOPREP-3 PINNACLE/CINC ASSESSMENT that contains information about the current situation, forces readily available, expected time, major constraints, possible COAs, etc. (JSOG, 2000, p. 5-12).

The assessment concludesthat the threat of increased Iranian nuclear weapon capabilities “warrants higher-echelon awareness” (JSOG, 2000, p. 5-11). The submission of CINC ASSESSMENT through the NMCC to the CJCS and NCA completes the situation development.

Phase II. Crisis Assessment

When the NCA and Joint Staffreceive CINC’s ASSESSMENT thatcategorized the problem of Iranian nuclear weapon capabilities as potential national concern, they start analyzing the crisis in the Middle East and reviewing all available options including military actions taken to deal with the threat of proliferating WMD in the region.

The NCA confirms that the national interests are at stake and establishes the national objectives — to deter Iran from producing nuclear weapon and, thereby, relieve the threat of proliferating WMD; all possible options are considered to achieve the objectives.

CJCS assesses the military aspects of the crisis that include operations, logistics, and command and control implications.

The CINC assesses the disposition of available and assigned forces. Subordinate commands continue monitoring the situation and begin their parallel planning; they report that the situation concerning Iranian nuclear weapon is aggravated: Iran starts increasing their military forces readiness.

Special combined teams that include representatives from all involved organizations and command staff divisions are assigned at all levels to discuss the problem and develop the resolution.

The CJCS recommends to the NCA to publish the orders concerning the deployment of forces. Once the NCA receives a report that Iran continues working on assembling nuclear warheads and increases the forces readiness, it concludes that a crisis is intensified and the CINC will develop military Course of Actions (COAs).

The CJCS gives Deployment Preparation Orders and Deployment Orders authorized by the Secretary of Defense to all combatant commanders to increase deployability posture, deploy forces, and establish joint task forces. These orders include the following (JSOG, 2000):

  • situation
  • mission
  • execution
  • administration and logistics
  • command and signal. (p. 5-14)

The mission of an operation is defined as follows: when directed, United States Central Command employs joint forces in concert with coalition partners to deter Iran from coercing its neighbors and proliferating WMD. If deterrence fails, the coalition will destroy known Iranian WMD production, storage, and delivery capabilities; and destroy its ability to project offensive force across its borders. On order, US CENTCOM will then redeploy (JP, 2000, p.IV-9).

NCA/CJCS’s decision to develop military COA concludes the second phase of Crisis Action Planning.

Phase III. Course of Action Development

Based on NCA’s decision to develop military COAs, CJCS publishes a Warning Order with the purpose to start the development of COAs in response to the threatening situation concerning Iranian nuclear weapon capabilities. A Warning Order includes an initial guidance for the CINC such as establishing command relationships, defining tasks, objectives, constraints, allocation of forces and lift to respond with a recommended COA to meet the situation (JSOG, 2000, p. 5-17).

Based on a Warning Order, the CINC sends the Evaluation Request Message to the subordinate and supporting commands to identify the forces and resources available for the COAs. The guidance that includes situation, operation concept, mission task, enemy capabilities, constraints, etc. allow the subordinate and supporting commanders to start developing COAs (JSOG, 2000, p.5-19). Their response to the CINC is an Evaluation Response Message, which evaluates alternative COAs and identifies forces to support the operation.

CINC reviews their response messages. In this step, the results of planning are the following tentative COAs:

  • Precision bombing of Iran suspected nuclear production facilities using naval capabilities
  • Precision bombing of all Iranian command and control elements of infrastructure
  • Strategic air strike
  • Strategic air strikes combined with the use of ground forces to invade.

Further, the validity of each tentative COA is evaluated in accordance with the following criteria (JP, 2000, p.IV-24):

  • Adequacy
  • Feasibility
  • Acceptability
  • Distinguishability
  • Completeness.

Next, the comparison of proposed COAs is conducted to facilitate the commander’s decision-making process “by balancing the ends, means, ways, and riskof each COA” through considering (JP, 2000, p. IV-37):

  • Advantages and disadvantages
  • War gaming results (computer simulation)
  • Evaluation criteria
  • Revised staff estimates.

A planning procedure results in CINC selecting the following COAs as recommended:

  • precision bombing of suspected nuclear production facilities using naval capabilities
  • precision bombing of all command and control elements of infrastructure
  • strategic air strikes.

Besides, force lists and support packages are created, and transportation feasibility of each COA is estimated.

The outcome of the third phase of Crisis Action Planning is CINC preparing Commander’s Estimate with the recommended COA. It includes the description of the operation, mission task, situation, COAs and their comparison, analysis of opposing COAs, enemy capabilities, recommendations, and objectives (JSOG, 2000, p. 5-19). Its purpose is to provide the CJCS with information for the NCA to consider their selection of a military COA.

Phase IV. Course of Action Selection

The CJCS receives from the CINC the Commander’s Estimate with the recommended COAs. The Joint Staff evaluates the recommended COAs; after reviewing and analyzing, refined COAs are submitted to the NCA in order of priority:

  • precision bombing of Iranian suspected nuclear production facilities using naval capabilities
  • precision bombing of all Iranian command and control elements of infrastructure
  • strategic air strike.

Prior to the NCA decision concerning COA selection, CJCS publishes the Planning Order to expedite execution planning.

The NCA selects COA– precision bombing of suspected nuclear production facilities using naval capabilities. The NCA decision initiates beginning of execution planning. When CJCS receives a NCA’s decision, an Alert Order with the selected COA is sentto the CINC. The Alert Order includes the following (JSOG, 2000, p. 5-22):

  • Forces and resources chosen for planning
  • Objectives, tasks, and constraints
  • OPORD submitting deadline.

The fourth phase of Crisis Action Planning is completed with releasing NCA COA selection in the Alert Order.

Phase V. Execution Planning

When CINC receives ALERT ORDER, execution planning begins. In this phase, three major tasks– execution planning, force preparation, and deployability posture reporting—are performed. The CINC starts developing OPORD through transforming the NCA-selected COA into an operation order format.

The execution planning task is facilitated by sound prior planning that provides the timely preparation of OPORD. Force preparation begins with identifying actual forces designated for the operation that allows refining Time-Phased Force and Deployment Data (TPFDD). Deployability posture is reported in commanders’ situation reports (SITREP) that includes “early attainment of, or deviations from, and a specified deployability posture”(JSOG, 2000, p.5-23).

The results of planning are defining the concept of operation, identifying the actual forces, sustainment, and strategic transportation resources that is described in OPORD.

The CINC submits the executable OPORD to CJCS that completes the fifth phase of Crisis Action Planning

Phase VI. Execution

The NCA decides to use the military forces to deal with the growing threat caused by Iranian nuclear weapon capabilities and execute the military operation through selected COA detailed in OPORD that was developed by the CINC. It initiates the execution phase of Crisis Action Planning. 

In the execution phase, CJCS carries out the following actions (JSOG, 2000, p. 5-28):

  • Sending an Execute Order authorized by the Secretary of Defense to the CINC
  • Directing deployment and employment of forces
  • Monitoring deployment and employment of forces
  • Resolving the crisis through meeting to termination criteria-– Iran no longer possesses an offensive threat to the USA and their allies in the region.(JP, 2011, p. III-19).

Based on an Execute Order, the CINC carries out the following (JSOG, 2000, p. 5-27):

  • executes OPORD through directing subordinate and supporting commanders
  • monitoring and assessing the situation
  • reports achieving of objectives- destroying known Iranian WMD production, storage, and delivery capabilities; and destroying its ability to project offensive force across its borders
  • reports meeting to military end state conditions.

In the execution phase, the subordinate and supporting commanders conduct the operation as directed by CINC through executing their OPORD and terminate operations in compliance with termination criteria.

Military mission is accomplished with the resolution of the crisis and redeployment of forces.